Tea, one of the most widely consumed beverages globally, is cultivated on over 5.27 million hectares of land and provides a source of income for millions of low-income families. However, the effects of future emission scenarios on the suitability of areas for tea production are poorly understood, and any adverse outcome under climate change scenarios can affect millions of households and the tea industry.
Tea is now cultivated in over 50 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical countries with an annual average rainfall of 1270 mm or above. Between 1991 and 2010, the tea industry witnessed exponential growth, and cultivation has expanded by 44 percent globally. Additionally, per capita tea consumption has increased by 2.5 percent in recent years, driving significant growth in the tea industry.
A recent landmark international study published in Environmental and Sustainability Indicators (May 2025) issues a stark warning: Climate change will significantly redraw the contours of the global tea industry by mid-century. The research, conducted by scientists from Assam University in India, the University of Wisconsin, and Addis Ababa University, utilizes cutting-edge climate modeling and high-resolution suitability mapping to present one of the most detailed forecasts to date.
Under both moderate and high-emission scenarios, the study outlines how traditional tea-growing zones will shift, shrink, or, in some cases, expand as global temperatures rise and weather patterns change. By 2050, more than half of the world’s top 20 tea-producing countries are projected to see notable declines in the availability of land highly suitable for tea cultivation. Kenya, one of the leading exporters of black tea, could lose up to 26.2 percent of its optimal tea-growing zones, with average suitability dropping by as much as 39 percent.
In India, the impact of climate change on tea production is more complex and nuanced. According to the study, some models forecast a slight decline of just over 2 percent in highly suitable areas, while others point to gains, particularly in higher altitudes, suggesting potential upslope shifts. This variability highlights the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of tea production in India.
Sri Lanka, another major player in the global tea industry, may see a 14 percent drop in optimal areas by 2050, worsening to nearly 30 percent by 2070. This decline could have significant economic and social impacts on the country's tea industry, which is a major source of employment and revenue.
Even China, the world's largest tea producers, is not immune to the impacts of climate change. Projections show a 4.7 percent reduction in its top-tier tea-growing zones, which could intensify under more severe climate scenarios. This decline could affect the quality and quantity of tea production in China, with potential implications for the global tea market.
"The impact of climate change on tea production in these countries will be significant, and the industry must take proactive measures to adapt to changing climate conditions," says Dr Pradip Baruah, a leading tea industry expert. "This includes investing in climate-resilient tea varieties, improving irrigation systems, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices," Baruah, who retired recently as the chief scientist from Tocklai Tea Research Institute, said.
The study's findings highlight the need for urgent action to address the impacts of climate change on global tea production. By understanding the regional and country-specific impacts of climate change, the tea industry can develop effective adaptation strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of tea production and protect the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on the industry.
However, the shifting climate also presents new opportunities. Some countries are expected to benefit from altered growing conditions. Turkey, for instance, could see a dramatic 127-130 per cent increase in moderately suitable tea-growing land by 2050, particularly in elevated, cooler regions.
Other countries such as Iran, Rwanda, and Thailand are projected to gain between 11 percent and 27 percent in highly suitable tea cultivation zones, potentially emerging as new tea-producing hubs.
“Climate change is a double-edged sword for the tea industry. While some regions may face significant challenges, others may benefit from changing climatic conditions. We need to be prepared to adapt and seize new opportunities,” Dr Baruah, who has authored several books on tea, said.
What sets this study apart is its innovative methodology. The researchers achieved a high predictive accuracy by combining five modeling approaches — Random Forest, MaxEnt, SVM, CART, and GLM — into a single ensemble (average AUC: 0.98). The use of high-resolution global suitability maps at a 4.5 km scale offers actionable detail for decision-makers. Importantly, the models integrate not just climate data but also soil parameters such as pH, organic carbon, and available nitrogen, capturing the complex environmental matrix essential for tea cultivation.
“Climate change is a pressing issue for the tea industry, and we need to take immediate action to mitigate its impact,” said Raj Barooah, a renowned tea planter in India. “This includes investing in research and development, promoting sustainable practices and supporting smallholder farmers,” Barooah who has travelled to many tea growing regions in the world, said.
The study identifies six environmental factors as most influential in determining tea suitability under future climate conditions:
- 1Precipitation during the warmest quarter
- Mean temperature of the driest quarter
- Soil pH at 100-200 cm depth
- Isothermality (a measure of temperature variability)
- Mean temperature of the wettest quarter
- Mean diurnal temperature range
When altered, these variables can significantly impact the growth, quality, and flavor profile of tea, a crop highly sensitive to microclimatic variations.
For a global tea industry in which over 60 percent of production comes from smallholder farmers, these projected shifts pose an existential challenge. The researchers stress the urgency of adaptation: investment in infrastructure such as irrigation and transport in emerging regions, development of climate-resilient cultivars, promotion of agro-forestry and soil conservation practices, and the use of robust, data-driven planning tools to guide zoning and land-use decisions.
As the climate crisis accelerates, the future of tea will depend on how quickly and effectively the industry, across continents and supply chains, can respond. Without immediate, coordinated efforts, some of the world’s most iconic tea landscapes may become unsuitable for cultivation within a generation, leading to significant economic and social impacts on communities that depend on tea production. The fate of the tea industry hangs in the balance, and it is imperative that action is taken now to secure its future.
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